The Israeli Iron Dome defence system has been deployed near the city of Haifa
Israel's reported air attack against a target or targets in Syria leaves many questions unanswered.
Was one target hit? News agency reports, citing US sources,
speak of an arms convoy carrying sophisticated surface-to-air missile
systems being attacked near to the Syria-Lebanon border.
On the other hand the Syrian government itself denies this,
saying instead that a scientific research facility in the Damascus
suburbs was attacked.
Some US reports also suggest that a building was hit. The
Israelis themselves are saying nothing. Rarely was the fog of war
murkier.
This air strike is the first time that Israel is believed to
have hit a target in Syria since its 2007 raid on a suspected nuclear
reactor - a mission that neither the Israelis nor the Syrians have ever
confirmed.
If so it points to the potential for a dangerous new
escalation in the Syrian crisis; Israel signalling that it is more than
ready to strike out if what it sees as "red-lines" are crossed.
Possible riposte
Given the chaos inside Syria a riposte from the Assad regime
itself is viewed by experts as unlikely. But Syria's ally, Hezbollah,
for whom the arms were supposedly destined, may seek some way to
respond.
The suggestion from US reports is that the air strike was an
attempt to prevent the Syrian authorities handing over modern air
defence systems to Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon. The weapon in question
is thought to be the SA-17 - a modern Russian system which comprises
four missiles on a tracked launcher, that also carries an associated
radar system.
This would be a significant enhancement of Hezbollah's
capabilities potentially limiting Israel's freedom of operation in
Lebanon's skies.
The Lebanese authorities clearly object to Israel's almost
routine infringement of their air-space but have very little ability to
do much about it. The SA-17 could change that.
Israeli warning
The air strike or strikes underscores Israel's growing alarm at what is happening inside Syria.
While a good share of Israel's
and indeed Washington's attention is taken up by fears about Syria's
chemical arsenal falling into the wrong hands, this latest air strike or
strikes underscores Israel's equal worry about sophisticated
conventional weapons being passed to Hezbollah.
Some four years ago the then Israeli government of Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert warned that it would not tolerate what it called
"game-changing" weapons being transferred to Hezbollah.
This included sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles, anti-shipping missiles, or long-range ground-to-ground missiles.
This Israeli operation can thus be seen as in one sense
pre-emptive, but also as a warning to the Syrian authorities and to
Hezbollah.
Ramifications
Why might the embattled Assad regime pass such weapons to its Lebanese allies?
Syria has been covertly arming Hezbollah for many years.
Hezbollah, along with Iran, is among the few friends the Syrian
leadership has left.
President Assad may be slowly losing his fight for survival
in Syria but the demise of his regime is not yet a foregone conclusion.
He may believe that something will survive and having a
well-armed ally in Lebanon may suit his longer-term strategic goals, if
indeed there is "a longer-term" for the Assad regime.
Hezbollah - like Israel - clearly believes that there will be a new round of fighting between them.
It wants to bolster its already sizeable arsenal, especially in areas like air defence where it remains relatively weak.
Quite how it may respond is unclear. Last July's attack on an
airport bus carrying Israeli tourists in Bulgaria suggests that if
there is to be a response it might be indirect - against Israeli or
Jewish targets abroad, rather than across Lebanon's own frontier with
Israel.
Either way the situation in the region has become even more
complex; the ramifications of the Syrian crisis thrown ever more starkly
into relief.
No comments:
Post a Comment