They are not getting the same attention as the battle for the Senate, but a
handful of gubernatorial elections this November could go a long way toward
shaping America’s political landscape heading into the 2016 race for President.
Several Republican governors eyeing a run for the White House must win
reelection first. How each state goes in 2014 could also be an early indicator
of the way it will vote in two years, during what promises to be a competitive
presidential race.
Here are the eight gubernatorial races that matter in 2014:
ARIZONA
Republican state Treasurer Doug Ducey is running neck-and-neck with
businessman Fred DuVal, a Democrat, to succeed conservative Republican Gov. Jan
Brewer, who is retiring after two terms.
(open seat)
Democrat: Fred DuVal
Republican: Doug Ducey
Why is it so close?
Despite having a conservative electorate, Arizona has a history of electing
Democratic governors, including former U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet
Napolitano and ex-Secretary of the Interior Bruce Babbitt. A rough
six-candidate Republican primary left Ducey bruised heading into the general
election, providing Democrats with a legitimate shot at retaking the post.
Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls
shows Ducey with a lead among likely voters of 0.5 percentage points.
COLORADO
Incumbent Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper is facing a competitive
challenge from former Republican U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez.
Democrat: Gov. John Hickenlooper (incumbent)
Republican: Rep. Bob Beauprez (challenger)
Why is it so close?
Hickenlooper, whose state voted to legalize the recreational use of
marijuana last year, had actually opposed the effort. But as governor, he was
nevertheless charged with implementing the law, resulting in steady criticism
from Republicans and social moderates opposed to legal pot about the potential
long-term effects of the legislation. He’s attempted to distance himself from
the law, but the backlash might prove to be too much.
Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls
shows Beauprez with a lead among likely voters of 0.5 percentage points.
CONNECTICUT
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Dannell Malloy is looking to fight off Republican
Tom Foley, a former ambassador to Ireland, in a race in the traditionally
liberal state that has tightened in recent weeks.
Democrat: Gov. Dannell Malloy (incumbent)
Republican: Tom Foley (challenger)
Why is it so close?
The race is a rematch of the 2010 gubernatorial election, which Malloy won
by fewer than 6,500 votes. Polling has tightened in recent weeks as Foley, a
former businesses executive, has been successful in his efforts to attract
Democratic voters in wealthy suburban areas of the state.
Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls
shows Malloy with a lead among likely voters of 2.3 percentage points.
FLORIDA
Incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Scott is narrowly trailing Charlie
Crist, the former Republican governor in the Sunshine State who switched
parties and is now running as a Democrat.
Democrat: Charlie Crist (challenger)
Republican: Gov. Rick Scott (incumbent)
Why is it so close?
Scott has endured a tumultuous first term as governor and has long been
considered vulnerable. Crist, who left the GOP in 2010 to run
(unsuccessfully) against Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race as an
independent, joined the Democratic Party in 2012. As such, he’s enjoyed
party-specific benefits as a candidate like campaigning and fund-raising
with former President Clinton. Crist has also widely drawn on his
experience and success from his first stint as governor.
Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Crist with a lead among likely voters of 0.6 percentage points.
ILLINOIS
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is running for reelection to a
second full term but faces a tough challenge from private equity whiz
Bruce Rauner, a Republican.
Democrat: Gov. Pat Quinn (incumbent)
Republican: Bruce Rauner (challenger)
Why is it so close?
Quinn, who succeeded convicted Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich in 2009,
narrowly won his first election in 2010 and is still struggling in the
reliably blue state after falling short during his first term to curb
Illinois’ fiscal problems. Rauner’s campaign has focused largely on
improving the state’s economic situation and education system — messages
that appear to have resonated well with a large chunk of still
undecided voters.
Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Quinn with a lead among likely voters of 1.5 percentage points.
KANSAS
One-term incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback, a conservative Republican with
stints in both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate under his
belt, is trailing his Democratic challenger, Rep. Paul Davis.
Democrat: Rep. Paul Davis (challenger)
Republican: Gov. Sam Brownback (incumbent)
Why is it so close?
Despite having a consistent legacy as a solidly Republican state,
Kansas has nevertheless elected a handful of Democratic governors in the
last 50 years. Brownback, a well-known name in the Sunflower State due
to his having served in the Senate and House, won his election by a
landslide in 2010, but has faced mounting criticism over a controversial
first term. Moderates have expressed dissatisfaction with the
uber-conservative’s decisions to sign into law a series of strict
anti-abortion bills and drastically cut funding for the arts. Davis, a
popular moderate congressman from the Lawrence area, has been endorsed
by more than 100 Republican Kansas politicians unhappy with Brownback.
Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Davis with a lead among likely voters of 3.6 percentage points.
MASSACHUSETTS
Popular Democratic incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick is not running for a
third term, creating an intense battle for the post between well-liked
state Attorney General Martha Coakley and Charlie Baker, a Republican
health care executive and the son of a former politician.
(open seat)
Democrat: Martha Coakley
Republican: Charlie Baker
Why is it so close?
Massachusetts has a long history of electing both liberal Democrats
(like Patrick) and moderate Republicans (like 2012 presidential nominee
Mitt Romney) to the governorship, rendering the current contest utterly
unpredictable. Pundits have forecast the race will come down to the
candidates’ positions on a small number of important, and largely
divisive, issues like gun control.
Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Coakley with a lead among likely voters of 0.5 percentage points.
WISCONSIN
Incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who overcame a 2012 recall
effort to oust him, is again in hot water, facing a strong challenge
from Democratic business executive Mary Burke.
Democrat: Mary Burke (challenger)
Republican: Gov. Scott Walker (incumbent)
Why is it so close?
Walker, who in 2012 became the first governor in U.S. history to
survive a recall election, continues to face many of the same criticisms
that contributed to the recall in the first place. A comprehensively
conservative agenda — which included eliminating most collective
bargaining rights for state employees, a major controversy — alienated a
plethora of centrists and moderate Republicans in the critical swing
state and created lasting disdain for Walker, whose ongoing flirtation
with a 2016 presidential run isn’t sitting well with voters, either. But
Burke, a former top executive at Trek Bicycle, hasn’t been able to
consistently capitalize on Walker’s flaws, and has been criticized
herself as uninspiring and inadequately qualified.
Early line: A recent Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Walker with a lead among likely voters of 1.8 percentage points.
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