Climate change could bring Higher Temperatures, Higher Sea Levels, and Flooding to City: Research

The city's future could be rainy, hot — and underwater.

In a new report issued Tuesday, scientists painted a picture that could be even more frightening than the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy. Climate change could hit New York with higher temperatures, dramatically rising sea levels, more rainfall and flooding, they said.

Temperatures are expected to jump 4.1 to 5.7 degrees by the 2050s — and by the 2080s, it could be 8.8 degrees hotter than the current average of 54 degrees, according to the study by the New York City Panel on Climate Change, a group of leading scientists assembled by the city.

By mid-century, the city could get five to seven heat waves a year compared to two currently, and the number of days over 90 degrees could double. The mercury is expected to crack 100 three to five days a year, compared to less than once every year.

“We expect temperatures to increase, precipitation likely to go up as well, and an acceleration of sea level rise,” said Radley Horton, a Columbia University scientist and panel member. “Sea level rise alone is going to increase the flood risk.”

Sea levels will increase 11 to 21 inches by the 2050s, 18 to 39 inches by the 2080s, and 22 to 50 inches by 2100, the group warned. And in the worst case scenario, the jump will be more than 6 feet if climate change goes unchecked.

Higher sea levels will mean more floods like the inundation brought by Sandy. The flood zone is expected to double in size by 2100, covering 99 square miles of the city.

And if the worst sea-level increases come true, the massive floods that are now anticipated every 100 years could happen every eight years.

Queens will be the most at risk for floods, followed by Brooklyn. In parts of southeast Queens, daily high tides could cause floods.

The city is also in for more rain — with precipitation expected to increase 4% to 11% by the 2050s and up to 13% by the 2080s, on top of the current 50.1 inches a year. And the city will get more frequent downpours and more intense hurricanes.

De Blasio administration officials said they’re working to cut the city’s greenhouse gas emissions, and to protect neighborhoods from the extreme weather that could be unstoppable.

The sea level in the city has already risen by a foot over the last century, a faster increase than the rest of the world, the researchers found. And temperatures have gone up 3.4 degrees.

“The projections we’re hearing about today assume that we don’t act,” said Dan Zarrilli, director of the Mayor’s Office of Recovery and Resiliency. “The good news here is that we as a city are continuing to act.”

Among the mayor’s plans to deal with the potential crisis:

• $335 million flood protection system for the Lower East Side.
• $100 million worth of shoreline upgrades in Coney Island,
• Staten Island’s south shore and other coastal neighborhoods.
• Coating building roofs with reflective paint to absorb less heat, in a program that aims to convert 1 million square feet of surface area each year.
• Armored levees in Staten Island’s Midland Beach and east shore, and dunes in Breezy Point, Queens.
• 4.15 million cubic yards of sand added to city beaches.

·         Mayor de Blasio has vowed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80% from 2005 levels by 2050, mostly by rehabbing buildings to be more energy efficient.

·         Samantha Borisoff, a climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center, said the study mirrors climate troubles the whole region has experienced — but warming is even worse in big cities like New York.

·         “We’re expecting to see more heat waves and more intense heat waves,” she said. “We are going to see an increase in potential for flooding risks and damage to infrastructure.”

·         And Kim Knowlton of the Natural Resources Defense Council said “cities around the world should take note” by “issuing strong goals for reducing carbon pollution over the next few decades” and “better preparing for sea level rise and flooding.”

·         Diana Furchtgott-Roth of the conservative Manhattan Institute was more skeptical.

·         “Money we are using for potential, unproved happenings in 2080 could better be used today for the health and safety of our citizens,” she said.