Inflation
in the UK could temporarily turn negative in the spring because of falling oil
prices, the governor of the Bank of England has said.
Launching the Bank's
inflation report, Mark Carney added that prices were likely to rebound
around the turn of the year, so this did not mean the economy had entered
deflation.
But he said if low
inflation persisted, the Bank could cut rates further.
Inflation stands at
0.5%, the joint lowest level on record.
That is well below
the Bank's target of 2%, and prompted
a letter from Mr Carney to Chancellor George Osborne explaining the
situation.
In it, he says that
"the UK is not experiencing deflation" and that the "most
important single reason for below-target inflation over the past year is the
unexpected recent sharp drop in energy prices".
"On the
assumption that energy and food prices stabilise, CPI inflation should pick up
notably once earlier declines start to drop out of the annual comparison,
towards the end of this year, " he writes.
Mr Carney said that
the headlines on inflation masked an underlying stronger economy. He has
revised up the Bank's growth and wage forecasts.
For this year and
next, the Bank of England sees economic growth of 2.9%. The 2016 prediction is
an increase from a previous estimate of 2.6%. Wages are forecast to rise by
3.5% this year, having risen by 1.75% in 2014.
It is quite a big
thing to exclude oil, energy and food where price falls have been significant
and sustained. And those falls are in part linked to the weakness of the global
economy.
The Bank also
acknowledges that price pressures in general are feeble, especially from
lacklustre wage increases.
But Mr Carney
insists this should not be seen as "generalised and persistent declines in
prices" of the sort that could be characterised (in his vocabulary) as
"deflation".
In fact, the Bank's
current projection is that inflation will rise to the target rate of 2% by the
middle of 2017, without it having to take any evasive action.
If it is right, the
Bank would be increasing interest rates - by a tiny amount, mind you - some time
next year.
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