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Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Positive indicators in job-loss statistics

The mining sector has surprisingly not recorded job losses in the third quarter, despite mining companies reporting jobs cuts over the period, according to unemployment figures released by Statistics SA on Tuesday.

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The agriculture sector also unexpectedly added a significant number of jobs even after a severe drought earlier this year sharply curbed output.
But despite these positive indicators, unemployment still rose from 25% to 25.5% in the third quarter — indicating that 5.4-million people looking for work were unable to find any, the quarterly labour force survey showed on Tuesday.

Unemployment rose because even though jobs were created by some sectors, others shed jobs while more people actively looked for work, which qualified them being counted in the official unemployment rate.
Mining jobs remained unchanged at 446,000 despite several companies, such as Lonmin and Amplats, having announced thousands of job cuts amid weak demand and low global commodity prices.
Stats SA noted that mining was "a very clustered industry" and "might not have been adequately captured". The job losses could be reflected when the fourth quarter unemployment data were released.
Agriculture added 211,000 jobs between the third quarter of last year and the third quarter of this year (year on year), and 28,000 jobs between the second quarter of this year and the third quarter of this year (quarter on quarter). Stats SA attributed the quarterly increase to farmers needing more workers to harvest produce and prepare fields for planting.

But some agriculture industry players said the numbers came as a surprise. "Given the drought that has caused decreases in the output of crops like maize, sunflower and soybeans, we would have expected a decreasing trend in jobs," said Grain SA economist Wandile Sihlobo. A severe drought saw agricultural output fall sharply in the second quarter.
Another surprising element was that despite weak economic growth and low consumer confidence, more people actively looked for work in the quarter.
The number of discouraged work seekers, or people that have given up actively looking for work, dropped sharply by 200,000 to 2.2-million in the third quarter.
"Sometimes industries continue to bring people into employment to ensure there is productivity even when the economy does not grow," Stats SA deputy director-general for population and social statistics Kefiloe Masiteng said.

It was no surprise that trade, construction and services added jobs. Trade and services tend to be busiest during the festive season. The job increases in construction can partly be explained by companies expanding or global firms building regional hubs in the country.
The expanded unemployment, which takes into account people that have given up looking for work, fell slightly but remained high at 34.4% — indicating that 8.3-million people are without jobs.
Youth unemployment remained shockingly high at 62% but was lowest among graduates.

by Ntsakisi Maswanganyi ,

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