In a landmark trade ruling, the
World Trade Organization will this afternoon find Boeing has illegally
benefitted from billions of dollars from the most anti-competitive type
of subsidy.
These so-called "prohibited" subsidies are considered
the most serious form of anti-competitive practice as they require an
undertaking from the company in receipt of them to promise not to
operate in other jurisdictions.
You can have the money if you promise you won't open plants elsewhere - in this case even in another US state.
This
particular subsidy was offered by Washington State - home of Boeing's
vast Everett and Renton plants - and covers the development of its wide
bodied 777X aircraft.
Previous examples of this kind of ruling
usually require immediate repayment - a sum that by some estimate could
approach $9bn, a figure Boeing itself, however, hotly disputes.
Boeing
has previously called for an Australian company, found to be in receipt
of similar prohibited subsidies, to be forced to immediately repay
them, but it's unlikely it will take such a hard line on itself.
Subsidy wars
This marks a victory for Airbus in a war without end.
Back
in September the European aerospace giant, which employs 15,000 people
in the UK, was on the receiving end when it was found that billions of
euros in low interest loans amounted to illegal subsidies.
Boeing celebrated that moment as a comprehensive victory which would deal a mortal blow to Airbus and result in more US jobs.
The reality is that neither of these companies can exist without government subsidies.
The development costs of new aircraft are just too big, and the risks and rewards too great, for governments to stay out of it.
Boeing gets money from NASA and the US Department of Defence; Airbus from very, very cheap government loans.
For years this was the case and an uneasy truce reigned over the world aerospace market throughout the 1990s and beyond.
Then,
in 2004, all hell broke loose and the lawyers on both sides have been
at each others throats for 12 years - a nice little earner for them.
Bury the hatchet?
Could the end of this legal gravy plane be in sight?
Perhaps.
It's not just the US and Europe who are at it.
Canada's government subsidises Bombardier, and then there is the biggest threat to the Airbus and Boeing duopoly.
It is called Comac, the state-funded Chinese plane maker with the world commercial aviation market its number one target.
Its
recent wide bodied aircraft combine features of both the Boeing 777 and
Airbus A350 and caught many eyes at a recent airshow in China.
Perhaps this potential common enemy will one day prompt Boeing and Airbus to bury the hatchet.
The
world's longest running and costliest trade dispute does shed some
interesting light on the workings of the World Trade Organization.
This
is a body the UK may get to know a bit better in the coming months and
years if the UK leaves the EU without striking a replacement trade deal.
The
big lesson is this: disputes take years, are rarely conclusively
settled, and do not take the heat out of international trade disputes.
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