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Wednesday, October 12, 2016

ELECTIONS: Donald Trump's candidacy sprang up from his GOP outsider status

It is axiomatic that party primaries are dominated by the party faithful, who are strong in their beliefs, and who can brave darkness, rain, or snow, to show up at the polls.
They tend to select nominees who belong to their end of the political spectrum.

The Curse of the True Believers (CTB) begins when these party faithful, augmented by influential outside groups of frustrated voters, turn out in droves for a primary, and nominate someone who is dear to their hearts — but who is unlikely to win in the general election.

I offer Barry Goldwater and George McGovern, both worthy men in their own way, as Exhibits A and B.

In the early sixties, conservative voters were so sick of Lyndon Johnson's Great Society they ignited a rebellion, and flocked to the primaries in record numbers to anoint Barry Goldwater — a quintessential conservative — as their champion.
Several election cycles later, liberal Democrats and liberal Democratic groups were so sick of the Vietnam War they led a rebellion, and selected as standard bearer George McGovern — who was from both the anti-war and the liberal wings of the party.
In each of these instances, their opponents won the general election in a comparative landslide. In looking for doctrinal perfection, both primary groups counter achieved: They ended up with a President who was the antithesis of everything they believed.
In view of these debacles, both parties tried to fashion a counter-weight to a CTB. This could take various forms, such as a mandate that the candidate win certain states, or number of Congressional Districts, etc.; and in both cases they gave the party regulars extra votes for the nominating convention.

This was widely condemned, especially by the candidates who were the objects of this exercise. Party regulars augmented with extra votes or who had mandated winning certain states, counties or districts, were held up as old fogies in smoke filled rooms overriding the choice of the people.
The Faithful had forgotten the medieval recipe for Rabbit Stew: First you must catch a rabbit. In other words: You cannot overturn the legacy of a President you do not like with a candidate who is unlikely to become President.
One of our Founding Fathers' biggest worries was that the government they were forming, or some part of it, would take over everything else, and become a tyrant, like certain European and Oriental kings of that age.
That is why they separated the government into three branches and gave the President a veto which took a tw-thirds majority in both chambers to override

In the 2010 Congressional elections, Republicans and conservatives of this country, fed up with Obama, led a massive counterattack, gaining 63 seats and a majority in the House. It was felt that this was the beginning of a revolution.
Finally, in the 2014 general election, Republicans captured both chambers of Congress. They got a majority but not a super (two-thirds) majority. At this point, those who had triumphed anticipated a complete overturn of things they felt were going wrong in the country, beginning with Obamacare.
They forgot about the veto. When the new Congress passed what was intended to be repealing legislation, the President simply vetoed it, and the Republicans did not have the votes to override.

When a 2013 budget had not funded Obamacare, and was vetoed by the President, it left this country without any authority to spend on defense, Social Security, or even roads, bridges and school lunches. Victory belonged to the side that didn't blink first.

This situation could have resulted in blame being fixed on either party. But the public and the media now turned on the Republican Congress, causing an ocean of eggs to be dumped on opposition party faces, forcing them to do the blinking.
Thereafter, only a few in the GOP were willing to play kamikaze a second time.
After the election of 2014, conservative voters were presented with a majority in both chambers of Congress, but not a super majority which could override a presidential veto.
As a result, those elected appeared to the Faithful to be unwilling or unable to do anything about Obamacare and other administrative initiatives they despised.
Did these conservative voters run for their copies of the Federalist Papers and the Constitution, and then blame the Founding Fathers for giving the President a veto, requiring a super-majority to override?
No, they condemned the Republican incumbents, who were stymied by this Constitutional roadblock and public relations powder keg. They called these incumbents things like "go-alongs," "wimps," or "establishment figures."

The Republican candidates in the 2016 primary also vastly underestimated the depth of feeling of the man in the street, who believed his country was being overrun by illegal aliens.
Only one candidate, the “outsider” Republican, promised to take swift and immediate action. The others waffled and were widely perceived as being “soft” on the issue.
As a result of all this, the conservative voters flocked to the Republican Presidential primaries in droves, ignored both proven vote getters and current and past office holders, and anointed the “outsider” though he was a candidate of uncertain political promise and provenance.

Did they end up shooting themselves in the foot? Only November will tell. Is it going to be another case of CTB — or is it going to be a new paradigm, like the election of Andrew Jackson?

We remember Andrew Jackson as the candidate who was a wild and wooly frontiersman, who broke down the walls of existing parties, who moved the U.S political center from the East to West, and who became the first true outsider to win the presidency.

Oliver Harris, author of the novel “JoJo,” has been a trial lawyer, a prosecutor and a criminal defense attorney over a legal career spanning 45 years. He has a degree in Political Science from the University of Chicago.

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